Weekday seasonality of stock returns: The contrary case of China

We document that Chinese stock returns exhibit early-in-the-week effects opposite-signed to those observed worldwide. The period of analysis is 2001–2016. Dominated by individual investors, Chinese stock markets offer unique out-of-sample insight regarding the source of weekday seasonality, ascribed elsewhere to institutional investors’ trading patterns. High returns to the market and to small, speculative stocks early-in-the-week pose a refuter to the mood explanation for the conventional (negative) Monday effect. A battery of tests suggests that the patterns in the Market, SMB, and RMW factors are jointly associated with Chinese individual investors whose demand is tilted towards small, speculative stocks. Our findings point to a potential role of dominant investor type in driving weekday patterns and the RMW premium.     

河南省传统村落空间分布特征及影响因素研究

[目的]分析河南省传统村落的空间分布特征及其影响因素,以期为中原地区传统村落的建设发展提供指导。[方法]文章通过谷歌地理信息系统及Arc GIS10. 2软件对河南省124个国家级传统村落的空间分布类型、分布格局、分布均衡型及影响因素进行分析,采用最邻近距离法、核密度估计法及地理集中程度等方法揭示其空间分布特征及其形成的影响因素。[结果]最邻近距离法分析R=0. 628,小于1,分布类型为凝聚型。核密度分析中,整体空间分布呈现3个核心区域,平顶山东北区域,豫西北沿省边界呈带状分布及豫南信阳南部,空间分布受地理、经济和文化等因素影响。[结论]河南省传统村落的空间分布属凝聚型不均衡分布。从地级市层面上分析,主要集中在平顶山东部、信阳南部和三门峡地区;从分区层面上,以豫中较多,豫北、豫西和豫南其次,豫东基本空白。形成原因与地理高程、社会经济和历史事件有关。交通不便、经济相对发达或相对落后、历史事件少发的区域,传统村落保存较为完整。     

Measuring destocking performance of the Chinese real estate industry: A DEA-Malmquist approach

This paper aims to measure the evolution of destocking performance of the Chinese Real Estate Industry based on a DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis)-Malmquist approach, which is seldom used in this industry in existing literature. In 2016, the Chinese government introduced a unified national destocking policy to reduce real estate inventory to save the downturn in the real estate market, but the effect was less than expected and led to soaring house prices in first-tier cities. By analysing the destocking performance over the period from 2005 to 2015, we find the following: (1) It is impossible to use a unified policy to effectively address the national destocking issue because of the difference of DMUs' destocking efficiency, input redundancy and total factor productivity score changes. (2) With the current destocking performance and investment status, the government is still ignoring the existing commercial real estate problems. (3) The redundancy of firm assets and staff indicates that zombie firms may exist and risk future unemployment in the real estate industry. (4) Despite the recently repeated government interventions in this industry, destocking performance remains falling since 2008, and problems in other regions is more severe than in central cities. (5) The financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis has had a great impact on China's real estate industry. The destocking performance dropped sharply in 2008, forcing the Chinese government to introduce policies to stimulate the real estate market. Policy recommendations are also put forward based on the findings.     

How to optimize the allocation of research resources? An empirical study based on output and substitution elasticities of universities in Chinese provincial level

Although significant progress has been made in China's basic research in recent years, there remains a wide gap between research in China and that from developed countries. How to optimize the allocative efficiency of research resources is of great importance for increasing research output. In this paper, using the fixed effect stochastic frontier model based on the translog production function, we estimate output and substitution elasticities of research and development (R&D) inputs at universities in China's provincial level during 2009–2016. We find that the R&D technical efficiency of China's universities, after a rapid growth, has tended to become relatively stable. Improvements of internationalization degree and exogenous R&D capabilities are conducive to promoting R&D technical efficiency, whereas expenditures from government grants inhibit the promotion of R&D technical efficiency; the effects of R&D capital deepening and internet penetration are not evident. The output elasticity of R&D capital is much higher than that of R&D personnel, suggesting that R&D capital is the main driving force of research output. The substitution elasticity between R&D capital and personnel has experienced a change from substitution to complementary since 2014. To realize sustained growth of research output, we should increase R&D input with positive output elasticity or reduce R&D input with negative output elasticity, making the necessary trade-offs according to the substitution relationship between the two R&D inputs.     

博弈视角下大学生互联网消费信贷决策行为研究

基于博弈论视角,从理论上构建了金融机构与大学生消费信贷决策的动态博弈模型,并引入信誉机制,比较分析了传统金融机构退出大学生信用卡市场而互联网金融大举进入校园信贷市场的深刻原因,同时借助大学生消费信贷调查一手数据实证检验了信誉机制的有效性,研究结果表明:在单次和有限次重复博弈中,“囚徒困境”普遍存在,而在无限次重复博弈中,尽管利率和交易成本下降有利于促进交易,但信息不对称问题却使博弈只能进行有限次,因此要达成长期合作,必须引入具有“社会性惩罚”的信誉机制来抑制大学生的短期投机行为,然信誉机制对于促进传统金融机构与大学生合作的作用有限,更多的是促进互联网金融机构与大学生消费信贷关系的达成,实证结果验证了该结论。由此得到的启示是,充分利用互联网大数据优势、强化互联网金融市场监管、引导大学生树立正确的消费观和责任意识,有助于破解“一放就乱,一管就死”的监管困局,这对于规范互联网金融校园消费信贷市场具有重要现实意义。     

碳关税的征收对中国纸制品出口贸易的长期影响效应分析

发达国家以保护全球环境为名提出了有关碳关税的政策,但是结合碳关税的相关政策内容来看,其动机是为了抑制发展中国家高能耗产品的出口,以便保证自身高能耗产品在国际的地位。我国身为纸制品出口贸易大国,一旦实行碳关税政策,将会对经济发展带来严重影响,基于此本文分析碳关税对中国纸制品出口贸易的长期影响效应具有十分重要的意义。     

Do networks or performance impact the promotion of Chinese officials? Evidence from prefecture‐level cities

This study examines the effects of connections and economic performance on the promotion of Chinese city mayors. Our study differs from the published literature in four respects. First, this study covers a comprehensive data set, including 1,422 mayors from 284 prefecture‐level cities. The use of a large data set helps resolve mixed results of past studies. Second, we use a broader range of top leaders. Third, we apply a more comprehensive definition of connections than earlier studies. Finally, we examine the effects of the policy shift of the 11th 5‐year plan on promotion of mayors. Our results reveal that the performance of a city mayor assisted his/her promotion to party secretary before 2006 but not afterwards. However, a mayor's connection with five types of top leaders is helpful. Among the four types of connection, colleagueship is the most effective in expediting the promotion of mayors. Graduating from the same university and department is also helpful but to a lesser extent. Township connection is not useful.     

How the iPhone Widens the U.S. Trade Deficit with China: The Case of the iPhone X

Through an examination of the case of the iPhone X, this paper demonstrates that Chinese companies involved in the production of the iPhone X have moved up along the global value chain. According to the bill of materials, those companies contributed 25.4% of the value added of the iPhone X. About 45% of the value added of the iPhone X originated in Japan, South Korea, and other economies. The iPhone trade remains a significant element of the statistical distortion of the China–US bilateral trade imbalance. In terms of gross value, the import of one iPhone X results in a USD332.75 trade deficit for the US; measured in terms of the value added, however the deficit is a mere USD104. The depreciation of the Chinese yuan (CNY) has very limited power to counterbalance the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration because the foreign value added embedded in Chinese exports is 33.9% on average. Simulation results show that to counterbalance a 25% tariff, the CNY would have to depreciate by 43.3% against the US dollar on average, and to fully compensate for a 25% tariff burden on the iPhone X, a 400% depreciation of the CNY would be necessary. Hedging the risk of the punitive U.S. tariffs by depreciating the CNY is impossible.     

中药方剂浸浴联合外用钙泊三醇倍他米松软膏治疗寻常性银屑病患者的临床效果

目的探讨中药方剂浸浴联合外用钙泊三醇倍他米松软膏治疗寻常性银屑病患者的临床效果。方法选取2018年2月至2019年4月于沈阳市第七人民医院就诊的寻常性银屑病患者114例作为研究对象,以随机数字表法将其分为观察组和对照组,每组57例。对照组患者外用钙泊三醇倍他米松软膏进行治疗,观察组患者通过中药方剂浸浴联合外用钙泊三醇倍他米松软膏治疗。比较两组患者临床疗效、银屑病面积严重程度指数(PASI)评分以及不良反应发生率。结果观察组患者治疗有效率为82.46%,显著高于对照组的63.16%(P<0.05)。两组患者治疗2周、4周后的PASI评分均显著低于治疗前(P<0.05);观察组患者治疗2周、4周后的PASI评分均显著低于对照组(P<0.05)。观察组患者的不良反应发生率为14.04%,低于对照组的21.05%,但差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论中药方剂浸浴联合外用钙泊三醇倍他米松软膏治疗寻常性银屑病能有效改善患者的临床症状,效果显著,且不良反应少。